- Brittle systems experience rapid performance collapses, or failures, when events challenge boundaries- David D. Woods
- “Even if the world were perfect, it wouldn’t be.” –Yogi Berra
- No plan survives contact with a disaster-in-the-making.- General Law
- “Everyone has a plan ’til they get punched in the mouth”. -Mike Tyson
The first response of a community to an insurgency is to resist. This resistance has the effect of blunting the insurgency. In this context, blunting means stuff like the following:
- Forcing the insurgent to alter their plan in small ways.
- Making them expend resources and energy correcting their mistakes.
- Wearing out the people who actually conduct the insurgency.
- Forcing them to reveal their plans prematurely.
- Forcing large-scale changes in plans that no longer are consistent with available resources or skills.
- Forcing them to use equipment and approaches that are generally maladaptive.
Successful resistance has the same effect as all chronic stress. As the stress continues, it provokes a chronic maladaptive response pattern from the insurgent. The longer the stress continues, the more maladaptive the response.
But this doesn’t mean much if blunting is all that happens. It is an illusion that resistance can actually restore what was before if the original insurgency was significant.